Methodology

Cistron Systematic works in equity research, quantitative research, and clinical evidence research. The subjects differ. The question has the same form in each: a claim about an outcome that has not yet occurred, an observable result, and a date on which the result is known.

Is a company worth its price at the review date. Does a signal earn its return after costs in a period it has not seen. Does a trial meet its primary endpoint. A topic becomes research when it can be written in this form.

Before analysis, each study records its hypothesis, data, method, and success criterion. The record is dated and stored. Later changes are logged with date and reason; the original is kept.

The rule applies to a valuation thesis, a signal specification, and a clinical forecast alike. It separates what was predicted from what was explained afterwards.

A result counts when it holds on data the hypothesis did not use: a later period for a signal, a later reporting date for a thesis, a readout not yet public for a trial. In-sample results are reported as context, not as evidence.

Before publication, a second researcher rebuilds each result from the archived code and data. A result that cannot be rebuilt is not published.

Cistron publishes Scorecards, Alpha Notes, and Clinical Evidence protocols and reports. Each states the question, the method, the evidence, the limits, and the status.

Estimates are scored when their outcome arrives. Theses that did not hold, signals that were retired, and forecasts that missed remain in the archive. The record is the measure of the method.