Find what holds
Mission
We test whether a claim holds before the outcome is known
A company is priced on a thesis. A strategy runs on a signal. A therapy enters a trial on a hypothesis. Each is a claim about an outcome that has not yet arrived. Cistron Systematic writes these claims as questions, estimates the answer in advance, and records the estimate so it can be scored when the outcome arrives
01
Equity Research
Is a company worth its price? Theses with a valuation range, invalidation conditions, and a review date.
Explore02
Quantitative Research
Does a signal hold outside its sample? Signals tested on data they were not built on.
Explore03
Clinical Evidence Research
Will a trial meet its primary endpoint? Probabilities recorded before the readout and scored after it.
ExploreFounding Statement
Foundedto TestWhat Holds
Kilian G. Schlipf founded Cistron Systematic to test ideas before they are believed. The method is the same in every area: define the question, fix the test in advance, use data the idea was not built on, and publish the result, including the results that did not hold
